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HiProb Capital Management LLC - Neutral Plus



Principal(s): Chuan Wang
Strategy: Index Option Spreads / Plus Box Option Spreads
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Investment Restrictions: 4.7 Exempt - QEPs Only++
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Statistics & Program Information

Mar Return   0.64% Worst Drawdown (2)    -2.17% Minimum Investment   $1,000,000
YTD Return   3.04% Losing Streak (3)    0.00 % AUM (5)   $5,000,000
Annual CROR (1)   13.40 Sharpe Ratio (4)   3.27 Calmar Ratio (6)    N/A
Trading Methodology
95% Systematic
5% Discretionary
 Style Sub-Categories
Arbitrage
Option Spread
Quantitative
Absolute Return

 Trading Style
80% Spread Trading
20% Arbitrage, and hedging
Market Sector
100% Stock Indices
 Holding Period
10% Long Term
5% Medium Term
5% Short Term
80% Intraday
 Sector
US
Contracts
Options
Start Date   Sep-2015 Currency   US Dollar Margin (7)   10% to 30%
New Money   Yes AUM (5)   $5,000,000 Management Fee    0.02
Min Investment    $1,000,000 Annual CROR (1)   13.40 Incentive Fee    0.2
Fund Minimum    $0 Losing Streak (3)    0.00 % Other Fees   no
Notional Funds    No Worst Drawdown (2)    -2.17 % Avg Comm (8)   $0.25
NFA Member    Yes Sharpe Ratio (4)    3.27 Max Comm (9)   $0.30
NFA Number    0500593 Calmar Ratio (6)    N/A Round Turns (10)    60,000
Starting Date:  Sep-2015 Currency:  US Dollar
Open to New Investors:  Yes Current Assets:  $5,000,000
Open to US Investors:  Yes Annual CROR:  13.40%
Minimum Fund Investment:  $0 Worst Monthly Drawdown:  -2.17
Minimum Managed Account:  $1,000,000 Current Losing Streak:  0.00 %
Domocile:   Calmar:  N/A
Subscriptions:  N/A Sharpe Ratio:  3.27
Redemptions:  N/A US Attorney:  Not Listed
Lock Up:  N/A Offshore Attorney:  Not Listed
Hurdle Rate:  N/A Administrator:  Not Listed
Administraton Fee:  0.00% Prime Broker:  Not Listed
Management Fee:  0.00% Auditor:  Not Listed
Incentive Fee:  0.00% NFA Member:  Yes
Other Fees:  no FINRA Member:  No
Other Memberships:  None
Type of Fund:
 Domicile:
 Strategy:
Track Record Prepared By: Unkar Systems
Correlations: AG CTA Index: -0.030              AG Systematic CTA Index: 0.011             

P - Proprietary Trading Results * C - Client Trading Result * P&C - Combines Client & Proprietary Trading Results (the accounting notes will identify the time frame for each.

1. Rates of Return: Rate of Returns are calculated from the start date of each program. Usually returns are calculated based on the Annual Compounded Rate of Return method. In some cases returns have been calculated on a Non-Compounded basis. This would occur when a Manager trades based on account unit rather than on account equity.

The Annual Compound Rate of Return ("Annual CROR") represents the compounded rate of return or each year or portion thereof presented. It is computed by applying successively respective monthly rate of return for each month beginning with the first month of that period. The Annual Rate of Return ("Annual ROR") is the annualized Mean Return.

2. The Worst Peak-to-Valley Drawdown ("Worst Drawdown") is defined as the greatest cumulative percentage decline in net asset value due to losses sustained by the trading program during any period in which the initial net asset value is not equaled or exceeded by a subsequent asset value.

3. Start & End Dates: Indicates the Start and End Dates of the Worst Peak-to-Valley Drawdown.

4. The Current Losing Streak ("Losing Streak") represents the extent of the Advisor's current drawdown.

5. Annualzied Standard Deviation is one way to look at consistency of returns. It measures the degree by which the monthly returns vary from the average (mean) return.

6. Downside Deviation is a measure of downside volatility. It only considers those monthly performance results that are less than the monthly Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return.

7. The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted ratio that rewards consistency of returns. Traders are penalized for volatility regardless of whether it is on the up or downside. The Sharpe Ratios is calculated using a 1% risk-free rate of return.

8. The Sortino Ratio is a risk-adjusted ratio. The higher the number the better. Results are dependent upon the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return (currently set at 5%.

9. The Sterling Ratio is a risk-adjusted return measurement calculated by dividing the Annualized Compound ROR by the Average Yearly Maximum Drawdown less an arbitrary 10%. The Sterling Ratio is normally calculated using the last 36 months of data.

10. The Calmar Ratio represents the historical amount gained for each dollar risked. A higher number is better. Unless otherwise denoted the Calmar Ratio is calculated by dividing the 36 month Compounded ROR by the 36 month Peak to Valley Drawdown. Traders with less than 36 months of data or a negative Calmar Ratio will be indicated by N/A.

11. The Omega Function accounts for the non-normal distributions of returns and takes into account the investor's preferences for loss and gain. Omega is computed directly from the returns distribution and measures the total impact of the moments instead of each one of them individually.

12. Minimum Investment represents the minimum account size.

13. Assets Under Management ("AUM") represents the current nominal assets traded by the Manager.

14. The Number of Winning Months represents the months with positive return.

15. The Number of Losing Months represents the months with negative return.

16. The Percentage of Winning Months represents the % of winning months.

17. Margin to Equity ("Margin") represents the average margin as a percent of a fully funded account.

18. Round Turns per Million ("Round Turns") represent the average number of round turns that would be generated in a $1,000,000 account.

19. Average Commission ("Avg Comm") represents the average commission rate of the composite track record. A higher or lower commission rate would increase or decrease the performance accordingly.

20. Maximum Commisions ("Max Comm") is the Maximum Round Turn Rate allowable by the Manager.

Trading Description, Risk Strategy & Background

Trading Description

Neutral Plus is an extension of Neutral, and augments Neutral by fully utilizing daily margin limits. After July 2022, Neutral Plus increases additional 0DTE spreads on expiration days. Since February 2023, the Neutral Plus also added box option spreads on S&P500 futures while generating extra profits. A box option spread is a "risk-free" arbitrage strategy to capture the benefits of Fed Funds interest rate.

Neutral aims to generate consistent absolute returns while reducing risk exposure. It primarily invests in near-expiration option spreads on S&P500 expiring within 48 hours. Positions are structured to be market (Delta) neutral, especially Vega neutral, to limit exposure to market risks. The strategy can profit in both rising and falling markets with a large profit window and high probability of generating profits. It evolved out of our extensive experience in trading index futures and related options, and utilizes our patent-allowed techniques to make high probability trades only when potential profits are significantly higher than potential losses.

Risk Strategy

Neutral and Neutral Plus always place risk control as their highest priority. All Neutral’s spreads comprise both long and short out-of-the-money puts, that are well hedged in terms of net Delta and net Vega. Especially, they are managed to be about "Vega neutral", and optimized with net Vega to be slightly positive. To prevent serious losses from events like flash crashes, any at-risk spread will be fully hedged with the underlying ES and/or related options so that said hedging would offset all of losses at expiration. With such risk control, both Neutral and Neutral Plus have resulted in a low worst peak-to-valley draw-down.

Background

CHUAN WANG holds a PhD from Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey. Dr. Wang has developed and implemented the trading strategies for the Program since 2008. Said trading strategies used by the program are based on our patent-pending techniques. Prior to founding HiProb, Dr. Wang had a wide spectrum of working experience, including Rutgers University, AT&T/Bell Labs, Merrill Lynch, and State Street Bank. Hiprob Capital Management LLC is a Commodity Trading Advisor registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and currently made up of three Series-3 licensed professionals.

Accounting Notes:

Performance from September 2015 through June 2022 represents the performance of the Neutral Program. Performance from July 2022 represents the performance of the Neutral Plus Program.

Performance

Performance from September 2015 through June 2022 represents the performance of the Neutral Program. Performance from July 2022 represents the performance of the Neutral Plus Program.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecROR Max DD
2024 0.50% 1.87% 0.64%   3.04% 0%
2023 1.73% 1.73% 4.02% 3.03% 1.62% 0.86% 1.82% 1.59% 1.41% 1.56% 0.44% 0.57% 22.33% 0%
2022 1.26% 0.81% 0.34% 0.75% 1.20% 0.89% 0.01% 2.25% 1.75% 0.65% 0.11% 0.94% 11.5% 0%
2021 0.56% 0.30% 0.25% 0.30% 0.83% 0.72% 0.47% 0.39% 1.32% 0.19% 0.17% 0.77% 6.45% 0%
2020 2.59% 3.06% 0.06% 1.60% -1.44% -0.05% 0.34% 0.68% 0.71% 0.36% 0.54% 0.46% 9.2% -1.49%
2019 0.50% 0.11% 0.60% 0.97% 1.78% 1.63% -2.17% 2.33% 0.26% 0.44% 0.23% 0.65% 7.5% -2.17%


Annual Performance

Years201520162017201820192020
ROR5.97%14.32%15.91%19.29%7.50%9.20%
Max DD0.00%-0.62%-1.65%-0.60%-2.17%-1.49%

Years2021202220232024 YTD
ROR6.45%11.50%22.33%3.04%
Max DD0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%



PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.

VAMI, Assets under Management & Worst Drawdown

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Monthly Returns

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++Qualified Eligible Investors Only:

A Qualified Eligible Person must meet the following two requirements: 1) the investor must first be an accredited investor. The most common ways for this are to either have a net worth of $1,000,000 or more OR an annual income of $200,000 or more for the last two years OR, combined with a spouse, $300,000 per year for two years, 2) the investor must meet an additional portfolio requirement, which is having $2,000,000 in securities holdings OR $200,000 in margin on deposit with a Futures Commission Merchant OR a combination of the two (for example, $1,000,000 in securities and $100,000 in margin).

Exemptions:

PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCOUNTS OF QUALIFIED ELIBIBLE PERSONS, THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A TRADING PROGRAM OR UPON THE ADEQUANCY OR ACCURACY OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS TRADING PROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT.

RISK DISCLOSURE

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THIS MATTER IS INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MANAGED FUTURES. THE RISK OF TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND/OR FOREIGN EXCHANGE ('FOREX') IS SUBSTANTIAL. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AS WELL AS GAINS. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IF YOU ARE UNSURE YOU SHOULD SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CTA’S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY.

PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. IN SOME CASES MANAGED ACCOUNTS ARE CHARGED SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND ADVISORY FEES. THOSE ACCOUNTS SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES, MAY NEED TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS JUST TO AVOID DEPLETION OF THEIR ASSETS. EACH COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR ("CTA") IS REQUIRED BY THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") TO ISSUE TO PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS A RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OUTLINING THESE FEES, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST AND OTHER ASSOCIATED RISKS. A HARD COPY OF THESE RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS ARE READILY AVAILABLE BY CLICKING ON EACH CTA'S "REQUEST DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT" BUTTON.

THE FULL RISK OF COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING CAN NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THIS RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT. NO CONSIDERATION TO INVEST SHOULD BE MADE WITHOUT THOROUGHLY READING THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OF EACH OF THE CTAS IN WHICH YOU MAY HAVE AN INTEREST. REQUESTING A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT PLACES YOU UNDER NO OBLIGATION AND EACH DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED AT NO COST. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING PROGRAMS NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS. OTHER DISCLOSURE STATEMENTS ARE REQUIRED TO BE PROVIDED TO YOU BEFORE AN ACCOUNT MAY BE OPENED FOR YOU.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS SHOULD NOT BASE THEIR DECISION ON INVESTING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM SOLELY ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE PRESENTED. ADDITIONALLY, IN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION, PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS MUST ALSO RELY ON THEIR OWN EXAMINATION OF THE PERSON OR ENTITY MAKING THE TRADING DECISIONS AND THE TERMS OF THE ADVISORY AGREEMENT INCLUDING THE MERITS AND RISKS INVOLVED.

AUTUMN GOLD CTA INDEXES ARE NON-INVESTABLE INDEXES COMPRISED OF THE CLIENT PERFORMANCE OF CTA PROGRAMS INCLUDED IN THE AUTUMN GOLD DATABASE AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE COMPLETE UNIVERSE OF CTAS. INVESTORS SHOULD NOTE THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INVEST IN THESE INDEXES.

 
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